New York Mets at Atlanta Braves odds, predictions, picks and best bets

The New York Mets (61-59) and Atlanta Braves (72-50) meet Thursday at 7:20 p.M. Eastern in what marks the final game of three between the National League East foes. The Braves have taken the first two games of the series and have won three straight.

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today’s sports odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Julio Teheran.

Stroman has been terrific on the road this season (2.05 FIP) and the former Blue Jays ace comes into this turn having posted a fine 3.62 xFIP over his last four starts. Stroman has been a solid second-half starter over his career. He owns a varied repertoire, but his cutter and slider figure to be key against an Atlanta squad which struggles against both pitches.

Teheran owns a 3.35 ERA/5.21 xFIP on the year. He has struggled mightily against the Mets in two starts this season. Over those turns (June 18 at home, June 29 at Citi Field), Teheran notched a 6.08 ERA, 2.03 WHIP in 13 innings. For the season, the 28-year-old right-hander has benefited from some generous rates around the margins.

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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: By the Numbers

  • Both teams have been swinging around some lumber in August (Mets: .839 OPS, eighth in MLB; Braves: .828, 10 th).
  • New York sports an above-average offense (.798 OPS) against fly-ball pitchers. Teheran (40 percent ground-ball rate) is squarely that.
  • The Mets’ oft-troubled bullpen has been better abroad (4.97 ERA) than at home (5.45). New York has also been solid of late, carding a bullpen xFIP of 4.33 in August (eighth in MLB).
  • New York is 7-2 over its last nine get-away games.
  • New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Picks and Betting Tips

    Moneyline: Looking at Atlanta’s Pythagorean mark, its record in one-run games (.514) and a couple analytic measures of how many runs scored and allowed the team should have had to date, the Braves’ win percentage of .590 is overcooked. The same can be said for Teheran’s 3.35 ERA but with a wider margin. The Mets +110 is a high-value play.

    Run line: The Mets +1.5, -166 could be considered as an insurance play. It’s more likely worth a price watch at best.

    Over/under: Warm night, breeze out to center and two top-10 offenses this month. Grab the OVER (10, -118) on its way up.


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